Commodities Analysis

Commodities commodities inflation real-assets cycle
Bottom Line

Commodity cycle analysis pending data load.

Divergence and momentum signals will populate from computed data.

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GLD 1M Return
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USO 1M Return
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Gold/Oil Ratio
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Avg RSI
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DBC Return
Ticker
Timeframe
View
Performance Ranking — 1M Returns
Ticker Category 1M Return 3M Return RSI 14 vs SMA50 Last Close
Action Framework
If Gold/Oil Rising
Risk-off positioning — favor precious metals over cyclicals. Consider GLD overweight and USO underweight.
If Broad Strength
Inflationary environment — rotate into DBC or commodity producers. Monitor CPI prints for confirmation.
If Energy Leading
Supply-driven rally — evaluate USO/UNG for momentum entry. Watch inventory data for sustainability.
If RSI Extremes
Mean-reversion opportunity — overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) signals flag tactical entry/exit windows.

Overview

This analysis tracks eight commodity ETFs spanning precious metals, energy, industrial metals, and agriculture. The goal is to identify commodity cycle positioning, inter-sector divergences, and momentum signals that inform inflation expectations and risk allocation.

The gold-to-oil ratio serves as a key macro barometer: rising ratios signal risk-off sentiment and flight to safety; falling ratios indicate growth optimism and demand-pull inflation. Energy versus metals divergence further decomposes the supply-demand picture across commodity sub-sectors.

Universe

  • GLD — SPDR Gold Trust (precious metals)
  • SLV — iShares Silver Trust (precious metals)
  • USO — United States Oil Fund (energy)
  • UNG — United States Natural Gas Fund (energy)
  • DBC — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (broad)
  • COPX — Global X Copper Miners ETF (industrial metals)
  • WEAT — Teucrium Wheat Fund (agriculture)
  • DBA — Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (agriculture)

Strengths

  • Multi-sector commodity coverage in a single view
  • Gold/oil ratio provides macro regime signal
  • RSI and SMA50 momentum overlay for tactical timing
  • Heatmap enables rapid cross-asset momentum screening

Limitations

  • ETF-based, not spot commodity prices
  • Roll yield and contango effects not decomposed
  • No fundamental supply/demand modeling
  • Backward-looking momentum, not predictive

How to Read This Analysis

  1. Check the BLOT headline. The bottom-line summary captures the dominant commodity theme: gold-oil divergence, broad strength/weakness, or sector rotation. This is the single most important takeaway.
  2. Read the metrics strip. GLD and USO 1M returns show directional positioning. The gold/oil ratio above 1.0 indicates gold outperformance. Average RSI flags aggregate overbought/oversold conditions.
  3. Select a chart view. Performance shows ranked 1M returns across all tickers. Gold vs Oil reveals the divergence trend with shading. Energy vs Metals shows sector-level rotation. Momentum provides the multi-timeframe heatmap.
  4. Use the momentum heatmap. Green cells indicate positive returns; red cells indicate losses. Color intensity scales with magnitude. Look for consistent color across 1W/1M/3M for trend confirmation.
  5. Sort the summary table. Click any column header to rank the universe. A commodity with strong 1M and 3M returns, RSI between 40–65, and price above SMA50 is in a confirmed uptrend.

Key Equations

Cumulative Return (Indexed)

$$P_t = 100 \times \prod_{i=1}^{t}(1 + r_i)$$

where $r_i$ is the period return at time $i$. Starting value is 100.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

$$\text{RSI} = 100 - \frac{100}{1 + RS}$$

where $RS = \frac{\text{Avg Gain over } n \text{ periods}}{\text{Avg Loss over } n \text{ periods}}$ with $n = 14$ by default.

Gold/Oil Ratio

$$\text{Ratio}_t = \frac{P_t^{\text{GLD}}}{P_t^{\text{USO}}}$$

Indexed to a baseline. Rising ratio signals gold outperformance (risk-off); falling ratio signals oil outperformance (growth).

Simple Moving Average

$$\text{SMA}_{50}(t) = \frac{1}{50}\sum_{i=t-49}^{t} P_i$$

Price above SMA50 indicates intermediate-term uptrend; below signals downtrend.

N-Period Return

$$r_{t,n} = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-n}} - 1$$

Used for 1W ($n=5$), 1M ($n=21$), and 3M ($n=63$) momentum windows.